Trump’s Another Appointment and Its Possible Impact on Karabakh Conflict

The US President Donald Trump continues to make changes among high level officials. The replacement of the US State Secretary was followed by National Security Advisor Herbert Raymond McMaster, who will be replaced by John Bolton, the US ambassador to the UN during George Bush’s presidency. To be objective, we should state that in contrast to Rex Tillerson, who only learned about his replacement from the Trump’s Twitter post, McMaster seemed to have a prior arrangement with Trump, the proof of which is the exchanged letters in which they thanked each other.

Below let’s understand what the main reasons were for Trump’s such a decision. In this context it is interesting to state that like the US newly appointed State Secretary, CIA former director Mike Pompeo, John Bolton is also known for his tough and conservative stance on a number of issues.

For example, in his article published in the Wall Street Journal, John Bolton tried to justify the necessity of the US striking North Korea, calling the North Korean regime a “preeminent threat” for the US. He had similar stance on Iran. In his another article, entitled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran”, he argues that sanctions against Iran by the West and the Iran’s Nuclear Deal can have no impact and they should turn to military power for that case.

Thus based on the above mentioned, we can state that Trump’s appointment of the candidate with such views as National Security Advisor is conditioned by Donald Trump’s and Northern Korean leader’s upcoming meeting in May. Another possible reason for the appointment is the expected Trump’s decision on reviewing the relief of the sanctions against Iran on May 12.

Trump’s appointments of candidates with such conservative and tough views first on the position of the State Secretary and then of the National Security Advisor aims at strengthening the US positions in the relations with North Korea and Iran pointing at the US uncompromising stance. Thus, we cannot exclude, that in the near future, we will witness more toughened US stance on the mentioned directions.  

What refers to our direct interests, it is interesting to note that in his previous speeches, referring to the Karabakh conflict, John Bolton posited for the US active role in the Karabakh conflict settlement and in the region in general. It gives ground to assume that in the future as well the US President’s newly appointed National Security Advisor will pay special attention to these directions. This can have quite positive impact both on the Karabakh conflict as well as on the region in general in terms of balancing the influence of great powers there.

Liana Hovhannisyan